Bas' Take on Tech: 2022 Review Edition
🗞️ Current Affairs
All the Christmas cards apart, we continued to see "news" primarily about layoffs and AI. Yes, the economy is cooling down, and yes, AI is on the rise (again). In some discussions during the holidays with tech-savvy and non-techies, I've seen two major standpoints: First: AI (ChatGPT and the like) is a significant improvement on an otherwise expected trajectory. Second: It will change everything, most likely regular jobs.
I'm more on the former side. Even though ChatGPT is impressive, it is a big but expected advancement compared to talking to Alexa to turn your lights on. The devil is in the detail. We will see some major flaws, and we are still further away than we think of real artificial intelligence. However, there are some interesting ideas on the horizon.
There were, however, some scientific breakthroughs in science this year. Reading through that article made me realize that what we call major breakthroughs are becoming more and more niche topics. That is not to say these discoveries are not valuable, but we have reached a level of global knowledge that makes a "big bang" kind of thing more and more unlikely. With one exception: The nuclear fusion thing. I'm still sceptical if that's an exploitable breakthrough or not.
Amidst the discussions about layoffs, Peter Levels shared his EOY pay report here. Top-paying entry-level positions have reached a quarter million dollars annually, while top-paid principal engineers bring home a million and more. In a zero-marginal cost industry (software!), even these numbers are negligible for purely software-driven companies. More on that in the predictions paragraph.
🔮 My Predictions
It is a good, old tradition to make the wildest predictions at the end of the year, for example, here on Hacker News. I am no exception. So without further ado to my predictions:
Tech Layoffs, primarily in the Bay Area, will continue. As a result, rents and housing prices in US metropolitan areas will drop significantly. At the same time, the big names will hire more in Europe and probably Asia.
Generative AI will continue to become a commodity. It will replace SEO writing, editorial stock photography and other commoditized content assets to a large degree. Google will react with substantial adjustments to their ranking algorithms and probably redesign the search box to something entirely new.
At the same time, AI is applied to more severe fields in government, health care, the financial sector and the like. As the flaws become more evident, there will be one prominent case of a severe impact on an individual's life that will be discussed broadly in global media and a fiery discussion in society starts. This discussion will end abruptly by introducing new drastic regulations, probably throughout the whole western world.
Prices for energy and, thus, transport will continue to rise and accelerate the trend of deglobalization. We will continue to face shortages as supply chains adapt.
Europe's economy will cool down severely, but not collapse entirely. Europe's governments will try to absorb inflation with redistributing policies and probably ban anonymous (cash) transactions entirely.
In tech, the trend towards oligopolies will accelerate significantly: Jobs will become more demanding and more niche but higher paid for software-only companies. Tech jobs in "old economy" organisations will diverge from "new economy" jobs even more. A shrinking economy and high interest rates will create immense barriers to entry for startups. After a drop of 45% in IPOs in 2022, we might see IPOs dropping even further, probably by another 50%.
🎢 My Journey
This is the personal part of the newsletter: My 2022 journey. For me, 2022 was full of intended change and a lot of improvements in different areas: Community, Health and Mindset. I will share some of my learnings with you in this and the following two issues. Today: Mindset.
You can read my full personal reflection on my blog.
🧠 Mindset
Our mind is a weird place: Generally, we are pretty good at giving advice to our family or friends when they face a problem, and yet, we are almost never able to find good advice for ourselves.
I struggled with brain fog, some sort of general discontent, and some bad habits over the last few years. I knew some of the mechanics of our mind and brain, such as its response to dopamine, oxycontin, serotonin, and other neurochemicals, but I felt incapable of acting on that knowledge.
This year, I learned a lot about mental models, and I developed a mental “framework” to assess what’s going on inside my head mindfully. It took some time, and experiments with micro-dosed psilocybin, to get closer to a bird’s perspective on my own mind.
Besides these experiments, putting myself out of my comfort zone made me calmer, more content, and more productive. As everything is connected, I attribute much of this progress to my new routine of daily walks. What also helped a lot was changing usual habits: Learning a new skill, for example, in sports or art, without the urge to take that to perfection, or travelling in solitude, put me in a more alert and mindful state over the year.
Probably the most important factor that kept me on track was: accountability. I reflected on my goals, setbacks, and next steps with close people. Finding someone who you can trust, exchange thoughts with, and who reminds you of your goals without judgement is so crucial for making progress. I am so thankful that I have such people in my life.
Key takeaway: Controlling my mind helped me focus better, and having accountability partners helped me build healthier habits even in tough times.
Tools used: Journalling; Meditation; low stimulating activities, such as walking; psilocybin (micro-dosed)
📝 Bhavani's Perspective
Bhavani Ravi is a software engineer who has worked on all things Python. She helps teams design and build backend systems data pipelines. As went obsessed with technical writing, I asked her about her perspective on that. Here is her answer:
For me, writing is a way of thinking. Once you put what’s on your brain on paper, you free up space for your brain to come up with new ideas. Writing is the 2nd best skill I’ve picked up after Python.
In tech, you can live through profound moments like building a product from scratch, fixing a nasty bug, and scaling a data pipeline. The best way to capture these moments is not on Instagram but by writing about them.
There is also a sense of community in technical blogging. It’s like passing on the torch and saying, “Hey, I’ve spent hours on coming up with this solution, I wrote about it, so you don’t have to spend the same hours.”
Technical blogging is also a professional journal. In 2016 learning Django felt like a humongous task. Now, I teach it to other people. Those old posts remind me of that journey. It also brought some great career opportunities.
As we near 2023, I nudge everyone to pick up writing as a hobby, do it for the fun of it, even if it’s 5-10 mins/day and see what doors it opens for you
I wish you a wonderful year ahead.
🚀 What else?
I will change this newsletter from “occasional” to at least once every two weeks. The new format will not only contain curated news and insights from the tech world but also set the stage for fellow developers.
I will ask people about their journeys in the tech world and also in life. I’m pretty sure there is much to learn from listening to other people’s experiences, and I am excited to share that with you!
Of course, I need your help with this.
Please tell me if you want to share your story with my 450+ readers!
What is something you learned?
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What do you want to share with others about your life, your productivity, your career, and your health?
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Best,